April 17, 2011
Spillover and the inventory
Frog says: The above set of graphs were drawn to give us an idea of how spillover is applied and how CIS clears the pending I-485s. Label on the y-axis represents the date of release of an I-485 pending inventory by CIS. As can be seen, it appears as if CIS will clear a significant number of pending application once a year. There is reduced numbers in the data between Aug’09 and Dec’09. Then there is one round of culling between May’10 and Oct’10. 
Fiscal year 2009 saw very sporadic jumps in cutoff dates including sudden dips from 08-2006 to 04-2003 then recovering slowly to 02-2004 followed by a ‘off the cliff’ jump to 01-2000. Thereafter it recovered to 10-2003 and then to 01-2005. After that we have not seen any roller-coaster movements till date. In 2010, the spikes were restricted to July-September. Presumably it was due to the available spillovers (approx. 19900). Graph 1 and 2 in row 2 show the effect of this spillover on the pending applications.
On the other hand, the difference seen between graph 1 and 2 in row 1 was the effect of a 10100 spillovers in 2009. There was no cutoff date movement during Oct-Dec, 2010. Hence we may presume that CIS was able to obliterate the peaks between Feb’04 and Feb’05 just during Aug-Sep in 2009. Those peaks account for 6089 visas. 10000 visas were split between India and China. Quite impressive that they were able to process 10000 applications in, probably,  two months.  
As mentioned above, graphs 1 and 2 in row 2 show the effect of 19000+ visa spillover. Again the movement of cutoff dates was only during July-September of 2010. The cutoff dates moved between Feb’05 to May’06 - ~450 days. The reduction we see in the graphs is CIS’ three month work. How many pending applications were processed? The inventory data says, ~14100. Plus another >1100 applications are still pending - possibly abandoned, RFEs, etc. Of the 19000 spillover visas India and China split ~14700:4400 among themselves.
Now the remaining pending applications will start clearing during May-Sep since the cutoff date movement this year has already begun.  The peaks in the last graph represent ~23000 EB2 India and then there another 10000 EB2 China. These are represented in the graph I posted on 15th Apr’11.
Ref: http://tinyurl.com/2asec5j; Graphics: Stata/IC 10.1 for Mac

Spillover and the inventory

Frog says: The above set of graphs were drawn to give us an idea of how spillover is applied and how CIS clears the pending I-485s. Label on the y-axis represents the date of release of an I-485 pending inventory by CIS. As can be seen, it appears as if CIS will clear a significant number of pending application once a year. There is reduced numbers in the data between Aug’09 and Dec’09. Then there is one round of culling between May’10 and Oct’10. 

Fiscal year 2009 saw very sporadic jumps in cutoff dates including sudden dips from 08-2006 to 04-2003 then recovering slowly to 02-2004 followed by a ‘off the cliff’ jump to 01-2000. Thereafter it recovered to 10-2003 and then to 01-2005. After that we have not seen any roller-coaster movements till date. In 2010, the spikes were restricted to July-September. Presumably it was due to the available spillovers (approx. 19900). Graph 1 and 2 in row 2 show the effect of this spillover on the pending applications.

On the other hand, the difference seen between graph 1 and 2 in row 1 was the effect of a 10100 spillovers in 2009. There was no cutoff date movement during Oct-Dec, 2010. Hence we may presume that CIS was able to obliterate the peaks between Feb’04 and Feb’05 just during Aug-Sep in 2009. Those peaks account for 6089 visas. 10000 visas were split between India and China. Quite impressive that they were able to process 10000 applications in, probably,  two months.  

As mentioned above, graphs 1 and 2 in row 2 show the effect of 19000+ visa spillover. Again the movement of cutoff dates was only during July-September of 2010. The cutoff dates moved between Feb’05 to May’06 - ~450 days. The reduction we see in the graphs is CIS’ three month work. How many pending applications were processed? The inventory data says, ~14100. Plus another >1100 applications are still pending - possibly abandoned, RFEs, etc. Of the 19000 spillover visas India and China split ~14700:4400 among themselves.

Now the remaining pending applications will start clearing during May-Sep since the cutoff date movement this year has already begun.  The peaks in the last graph represent ~23000 EB2 India and then there another 10000 EB2 China. These are represented in the graph I posted on 15th Apr’11.

Refhttp://tinyurl.com/2asec5jGraphics: Stata/IC 10.1 for Mac

  1. papyh posted this